Vista launch day. 20 countries. $500 million in ad dollars. The trick is can Microsoft’s “Wow” ad campaign surpass the tepid reviews and the five year build cycle for an operating system that nobody can clearly explain why you should get it.
New operating systems traditionally boost both the hardware and software market significantly, setting a new level for development. The releases of Windows 95 and Windows XP did just that. Right now, nobody’s feeling that effect with Vista. Even if the ad campaign works well, it all comes down to product and user experience. We’ll see.
IDC estimates that for every $1 Microsoft makes on Vista the industry makes $18. This is why they maintain such a huge share of the market. They support and grow the rest of the industry.
Unlike when Apple released the iPhone, the market is though not responding favorably to Microsoft’s share price which is down right now.
Plus Microsoft has many years of negative image among the geek community to overcome. In fact, there was an anti-Vista demonstration today in NYC.
But since it took Microsoft five years to release the product, I don’t think this is a rush and buy it operating system like it has been in the past. More I think this is an issue of what’s happened to the market. We’re no longer in the hockey stick-curve development of the market. This is more of a situation of flattening out. There’s no longer a situation of “I have to get this product so I can do this.” The market is trying to create needs hoping that it can go back to hockey stick levels of adoption. Where people were constantly upgrading because if they didn’t they would be left behind.
Vista will have its day. But it won’t come immediately through this ad blitz. We’ll see more of a trickle effect.
I want to disclose that I do some work with Microsoft. I’m the editor of a wiki about hosted messaging.
And can YouTube keep users posting videos without paying them? That’s a question that Google and YouTube don’t want to gamble on so they’ve announced that they’re going to offer up some type of revenue share system to video producers similar to what competitive sites Metacafe, Revver, and Break.com offer.
